A’s fans responded to my farm system rankings with dismay, wondering how the team could trade five major veterans — Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Sean Manaea, Sean Murphy, and Frankie Montas — and still have a bottom-five system. Some of that is about the trades themselves, as several prospects they acquired have gone backward, but the A’s have also had some very big misses in international free agency, and their last first-rounder to live up to his draft pick was Chapman in 2014.
GO DEEPER
MLB prospect rankings 2023: Keith Law’s complete guide to every farm system
The ranking
1. Tyler Soderstrom, 1B/C (Top 100 ranking: No. 60)
Age: 21 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 26 in 2020
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Soderstrom got off to a miserable start last year, hitting .159/.232/.318 for High-A Lansing in April, but as the weather warmed up, so did he, with a .283/.337/.527 line the rest of the way, through promotions to Double A and then Triple A to finish the year. He injured his thumb while catching in April, so he started more games at first base (51) than catcher (36) the rest of the way, which makes sense given that he’s still well below average on defense and has to move to another position anyway — and that’ll help him avoid some of the injuries he’s had in his two years in pro ball so far. Soderstrom is a hitter first, aggressive without overly expanding the zone, and he continued to make hard contact even after the thumb injury. He has excellent bat speed and stays very steady through contact, with easy power already even though he hasn’t filled out physically. I can’t find anyone outside the A’s organization who thinks Soderstrom can catch — most scouts I ask believe he doesn’t want to catch anyway — and between his injuries from catching and the fact that he hit a lot better last year when he started playing more first base, it’s time to just give up on that experiment. Let him go play first and hit 30 bombs a year with a solid batting average and maybe a fringy OBP.
Tyler Soderstrom (Grace Mikuriya / Stockton Ports)2. Zack Gelof, 3B (just-missed list)
Age: 23 | 6-3 | 205 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 60 in 2021
Gelof moved right to Double A to start 2022, even though he had only 36 pro games after the A’s took him out of the University of Virginia in 2021, and got off to a tremendous start, hitting .316/.372/.458 through May 26. That’s when he tore the labrum in his left shoulder, going on the injured list for seven weeks. When he came back, he wasn’t the same guy, hitting .231/.343/.419 until a late-season promotion to Triple A, with similar struggles in the AFL. I’d really just like to see him healthy again, because I believe in the bat — I think he’ll hit 20-25 homers with a .260-.280 average, a solid walk total, and probably more punchouts than you want, along with solid-average defense at third despite some throwing issues. The fact that the shoulder seemed to still be sapping his power in Arizona, where everybody hits, was the last straw in keeping him off the top 100.
3. Brett Harris, 3B
Age: 25 | 6-3 | 208 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 218 in 2021
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Harris was Oakland’s seventh-round pick in 2021 out of Gonzaga where he was a fifth-year senior, turning 23 just a few weeks before the draft, but he did what an older hitter like him has to do in his first year in pro ball — he reached Double A and continued to hit. The A’s were aggressive with Harris, bumping him up after he wrecked High A pitching for a month, and he hit .286/.361/.441 with plus defense at third and just a 17.2 percent strikeout rate at Double A. He’ll play at 25 this year, so what you see is what you get. I see a guy who doesn’t miss fastballs, doesn’t chase, has enough power to hit some doubles and maybe 10-12 homers, and will be worth 5+ runs with his glove. Maybe that’s a starter, maybe a really good bench player, but it’s a big leaguer and better than a replacement-level one.
4. Ken Waldichuk, LHP
Age: 25 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 165 in 2019
Waldichuk is big-league ready and made seven starts for the A’s last year after they acquired him in the Montas deal, but he’s more likely to end up a reliever in the long run between his lack of a pitch to get right-handers out and below-average command from a long arm swing. His fastball sits in the mid-90s with high spin and run, while he throws a slider with ordinary spin rates but huge tilt that plays up against lefties because he gets tremendous extension over his front side. His changeup is no better than a 45, and right-handed batters hit .275/.348/.549 off him in the majors. Opposing clubs clearly knew the scouting report, as they sent up mostly right-handed hitters (79 percent of his batters faced) against him, and that’s going to continue until he develops something to get them out. Oakland’s home park forgives a lot of sins, so maybe Waldichuk can stay in their rotation, but in a neutral environment, his platoon issues and below-average command would force him to a swing role.
5. Mason Miller, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-5 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 97 in 2021
If Miller had any history of staying healthy, he’d be a top-100 guy, but he doesn’t, and I don’t feel confident he ever will. It’s premium stuff, up to 102, sitting 97-100 mph, with a mid-80s slider, a hard change, and a cutter he’s likely to reintroduce this year. He missed nearly all of 2022 with a scap injury and already has two screws in his elbow (I assume to hold it together, not just for decoration); he also has Type 1 diabetes. If he holds up, he could be a No. 2 or better — and to be clear, I’m hoping he holds up. It’s just that the odds are against it.
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6. Darell Hernaiz, 2B
Age: 21 | 6-1 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 138 in 2019
Just acquired last month for Cole Irvin, Hernaiz got stronger in the offseason before 2022 and hit .298/.364/.476 between both A-ball levels before a late-season promotion to Double A. He keeps improving the more he gets to play, showing better command of the zone and coming into doubles power already. He’s not a shortstop, despite playing the majority of his games there last year, but I’ve seen him play plus defense at second, with soft hands and good range both ways, while he’s also played some third. I think he’s a 35 doubles, 10-15 homers guy, with a fringy walk rate that keeps his OBP around league average, and either plays second or becomes a super-sub who moves around the infield. He was surrounded by better prospects in Baltimore but there’s no one in his way now in Oakland.
7. Jordan Díaz, 1B/2B
Age: 22 | 5-10 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2016
Díaz has good feel to hit, with enough power to potentially be a regular at second or third; at first, he might not have the on-base skills to generate enough offense to be at that level. He reached the majors last year at 21 after mashing his way through the minors, hitting .319/.361/.507 in Double A before ascending to the hitter-friendly confines of Las Vegas, rarely walking or striking out at any stop. The Colombian native has played all three infield spots mentioned above, plus a little left field, but he was not good at second base in his brief trial in the majors, and third will require work. The good news is he’s young and his hit tool will buy him time to find a place to play.
8. Freddy Tarnok, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-3 | 185 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 80 in 2017
The best player coming back in the Murphy trade, Tarnok is an excellent athlete who was a two-way guy in high school and preferred hitting to pitching. He’s 93-96 mph now, touching 98, with a plus changeup and average control. He throws a slider and curve but neither is an average pitch, and needs to use the changeup more against lefties, as he doesn’t have a ton of deception against lefties. He’s improved by leaps and bounds since Atlanta took him in the third round out of high school back in 2017, so I believe he can continue to make adjustments, but he has to at least improve the breaking ball and change his pitch usage to be a mid-rotation starter.
9. Denzel Clarke, OF
Age: 23 | 6-5 | 220 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 127 in 2021
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Clarke has the best tools in the system — it’s 80 raw, probably 80 run, at least a 70 arm — and one of the least efficient swings, getting nothing from his lower half and hindering his already shaky pitch recognition. Drafted in the fourth round out of Cal State, Northridge in 2021, Clarke, who was born in Toronto, is a very gifted athlete with a body that looks like it belongs in another sport. He started in Low A, where he was too old and experienced for the level, then hit just .209/.317/.406 in 51 games in High A, with a 36 percent strikeout rate. It’s 30/30 upside and low probability he gets to it, with swing and eye issues, but the upside is Mike Cameron with a better arm.
10. Kyle Muller, LHP
Age: 25 | 6-7 | 250 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Left
Drafted: No. 44 in 2016
Muller came over with Tarnok in the Murphy trade, just barely still qualifying for these lists as he’s an inning short of the 50-inning threshold for rookie eligibility. He’s 6-7, 250 pounds with the velocity and four pitches to start, but nothing is plus, not even the fastball, which is mostly 93-96 mph and features high spin. He’s better against lefties, with good extension to give him more deception and mitigate the relative lack of movement on his two breaking pitches. He seems very likely to benefit from Oakland’s home park, although I think he’s more of a fifth starter in a neutral setting.
11. Daniel Susac, C
Age: 22 | 6-4 | 218 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 19 in 2022
The A’s took Susac in the first round last year, but his pro debut did not earn high marks from scouts who saw him, as they questioned the hit tool and the glove. Susac does have 60/65 power and is a solid bad-ball hitter, expanding the zone but also showing unusual coverage outside of it. That’s usually not a sustainable skill as a hitter moves up to face pitchers with better stuff and better command. He’s got a plus arm but is a fringy receiver, a 45 or 50 for me in the spring, with pro scouts coming back more pessimistic. At this point, I’d call him a solid bet to be a backup, with upside if the hit tool comes around, but with low probability of that happening.
12. Euribiel Angeles, SS/2B
Age: 21 | 5-11 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2018
Angeles can hit, with high-quality line-drive contact, but after the A’s acquired him in a trade that sent Manaea to San Diego, Angeles started 2022 in a terrible funk where he went from aggressive to impatient, and didn’t really start to hit again until mid-to-late June, performing better in a second half abbreviated by injury. Scouts also questioned his effort level on defense, making it seem all but certain he’ll end up at second base. Despite the off year, he does have a good swing and the ball comes off his bat different; he was only 20 in High A and struck out only 15 percent of the time, so the contact skills are intact. I think he’ll bounce back this year in Double A, but probably should just move to second base full-time.
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13. Esteury Ruiz, OF
Age: 24 | 6-0 | 169 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2015
Ruiz is a 70 runner who can go get it in center but has no impact with the bat, with well below-average exit velocities that will make it hard for him to be an everyday guy. He’s the opposite of Cristian Pache at the plate — Ruiz has a good approach and makes a lot of contact, while Pache is still stuck with his A-ball approach so he can’t get to his plus power. Ruiz’s strength hasn’t improved much since rookie ball, which is surprising, but without more sock I don’t see how he can be more than a fourth outfielder.
14. Gunnar Hoglund, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-4 | 220 pounds
Bats: Left | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 19 in 2021
Hoglund was part of the Chapman trade while he was still making his way back from May 2021 Tommy John surgery. When he returned to action, his stuff wasn’t all the way back, and after three outings he went back on the shelf with a bicep injury. Hoglund was never a power guy, but showed plus command and control at Ole Miss with no out pitch, succeeding because he located well and mixed up his pitches. We’ll have to see how his stuff looks in March or April at this point. He had mid-rotation ceiling before all the injuries.
15. J.T. Ginn, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-2 | 200 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 52 in 2020
Ginn’s stuff has backed way up since he was the Dodgers’ first-round pick in 2018; he spurned their offers and went to Mississippi State, where he was electric in his first year and blew out his elbow in his second. Coming to Oakland in the Bassitt trade, he’s gone from a 70 fastball/70 slider before the surgery to throwing a 92-93 mph sinker with an average changeup and slider, working with a much shorter arm action, although he still missed more than half of 2022 with further forearm trouble. I liked the idea of him becoming a groundball guy since the slider isn’t the wipeout pitch it had been, but that requires a grade better command than he has now, and he has to stay healthy, too.
16. Max Muncy, SS
Age: 20 | 6-1 | 180 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 25 in 2021
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Oakland’s first-round pick in 2021 looks like a bit of a reach now in hindsight, although there were plenty of positives in his first full pro season. He started selling out more for power last year even in Low A, hitting 16 doubles and 16 homers in 81 games, but striking out 30 percent of the time to get there, and when he moved up to High A he kept striking out at the same rate but without the power. I see a kid who’s added enough strength so far to get to doubles power without trying to jerk everything out to left, and if he focuses more on contact and using the whole field, he should cut the strikeout rate and show gap power to be a regular. He’s a shortstop and works hard on both sides of the ball, so I’m optimistic even with the disappointing debut.
17. Luis Medina, RHP
Age: 24 | 6-1 | 175 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2015
Medina has elite stuff, a good delivery, athleticism, and way too little idea of where the ball is going. His walk rate of 13 percent last year, all in Double A, was his career low, and actually got worse after the trade that sent him to Oakland, as he walked 22 in 20 2/3 innings for Double-A Midland. He’s up to 99 mph with a slider and changeup that you could call plus, but he’s 24 now and I can’t see him starting at this point. Just put him in the pen and let him sit 97-100 and outstuff hitters for an inning at a time.
18. Luis Morales, RHP
Age: 20 | 6-3 | 190 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
International signing in 2023
I exclude the current-year international free agents who signed a few weeks ago because they’re mostly 16 years old and scouts haven’t seen them since they were “locked up” to verbal agreements as long as three years before they could officially sign. The A’s did sign one of the few exceptions, Cuban right-hander Luis Morales, who defected in 2021 and is 20 years old. (I made a similar exception last year for White Sox prospect Oscar Colás.) Morales pitched in Cuba’s Serie Nacional as a 17-year-old and has bumped 99, sitting mid-90s, generating a lot of power from his legs and a big scap load in his delivery. He had below-average command and control when we last saw him in games and the secondary stuff is a work in progress. It’s real arm strength in a good pitcher’s body with a delivery that should work for him to start.
19. Lawrence Butler, OF
Age: 22 | 6-3 | 210 pounds
Bats: Left| Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 173 in 2018
Butler has improved his conditioning substantially since the A’s took him in the sixth round in 2018, turning it around during the lost pandemic season, so now he’s moving better, playing better defense in right, and swinging the bat more freely. There’s still way too much punch here, 31.5 percent in High A last year when he was 21, but there’s also 20+ homer power and enough of an eye that he could eke out a path to the majors as a low-average, high-walks slugger who plays above-average defense in an outfield corner.
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20. Ryan Cusick, RHP
Age: 23 | 6-6 | 235 pounds
Bats: Right | Throws: Right
Drafted: No. 24 in 2021
Cusick was one of the players acquired in the Olson trade, but Atlanta’s first-round pick from 2021 regressed badly in his first year with Oakland, and he has a lot of work to do just to project as a reliever. He walked 30 in 41 innings in Double A, then 13 more in 23 AFL innings, not even throwing his 94-97 mph four-seamer for strikes often enough. It’s a high-spin pitch that should miss bats in the zone, up top or below the belt, but he has a high-maintenance delivery and doesn’t repeat it enough for that kind of command. His mid-80s slider is a great chase pitch, with tight downward break when he lands it, but he has 35 command of the pitch at best, and his changeup was a non-factor. He did miss nearly three months with a broken rib, so perhaps that explains the lost command and delivery inconsistency.
Others of note
Outfielder Pedro Pineda’s year was a disaster, as he tried to play through a sore shoulder and was overmatched as an 18-year-old in Low A, hitting .188/.306/.333 there. The A’s signed him for a $2.5 million bonus in January of 2021, betting on the 55 speed and plus arm as well as his pitch recognition. He still hasn’t filled out much and isn’t as strong as most of his peers, while he’s gotten out of sync at the plate, with his hands too close behind his hips for him to drive anything — it’s almost like he’s trying to catch the ball with his bat and flip it over the shortstop. I’m not giving up on him, although I know scouts who are way out at this point. He’ll be 19 this year and he’s physically immature. Had he stayed in the ACL last year the perception might be different … Outfielder Clark Elliott was Oakland’s pick with their competitive balance B round selection, a plus runner and probable centerfielder with above-average power, but he hasn’t hit lefties at all and struggled with right-handers’ changeups … Colby Thomas was their third-round pick, a corner outfielder who should be a solid to 55 defender at either spot, with plus power but trouble with offspeed stuff. He tore the labrum in his throwing shoulder last May, so his pro debut will come this spring … Right-hander Royber Salinas came over with Muller and Tarnok in the Murphy trade, touching 99 with a power slider, but it’s a very rough delivery and a high three-quarter slot that both indicate a relief future is way more likely than a starter spot. He whiffed almost 38 percent of batters he faced in A ball last year but walked 13.5 percent. He also has no third pitch for lefties and a slot that high is not conducive to a changeup … Henry Bolte was their second-round pick in 2022 out of a nearby high school. He looks great in the uniform and is tooled out but has no feel to hit right now, striking out 19 times in 39 PA in the ACL after he signed. I didn’t think he was a top-three rounds talent … Jefferson Jean is a projectable 17-year-old right-hander who’s been up to 98-99 mph, throwing just 7 innings in the DSL last summer but likely to pitch in the ACL this year with a limited workload until he fills out.
2023 impact
Muller and Waldichuk will probably both be in the rotation, if not on Opening Day then for the majority of the season. Díaz needs a position but there’s playing time for him at third, first, or DH, depending on where some other guys play. Pache is the incumbent in center, but as much as I liked the guy as a prospect, he has made zero adjustments at the plate and had a .218 OBP last year, so maybe giving Ruiz the job would be better for the team, though Pache is out of options.
The fallen
Robert Puason was Oakland’s big signee in international free agency in 2019, earning a $5 million bonus even with a lot of questions about his bat and beyond. He repeated Low A last year at age 19 and was worse than he was in 2021, so the A’s demoted him to the ACL in late June where he struck out 31 percent of the time despite being 19 with 146 games at a higher level. I don’t see this working out.
Sleeper
Hernaiz was often overlooked in Baltimore’s system with all the high draft picks around him, often playing the same positions, but I think he could end up an above-average regular, especially if Oakland just lets him play one spot so he can focus on the bat.
(Photo of Zack Gelof: Mark J. Rebilas / USA Today)
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